Market
2026-06-07·7m
Is It 1996 or 2000?
The Shiller PE has climbed to 39.8, the second highest on record. Media calls it mania. But the real question is not whether it is a bubble, but whether we are closer to 1996 or to 2000. The economy, inflation, and the rate-hike lag point to an answer.
Key$80B of retail money flowed into US equities over two months (a decade high). The S&P 500 is near record highs, up nearly 20% since March. The Shiller PE at 39.8 is second only to December 1999's all-time 44.2.
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